CHICAGO — The first public polling of the April 4 runoff election for Chicago mayor shows the first-place finisher in the primary with a narrow lead.
Former Chicago Public Schools CEO Paul Vallas had the support of 44.9 percent of respondents, Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson was supported by 39.1 percent and the remaining 16 percent were either undecided or did not know who they planned to vote for.
Even voters who expressed a preference between Vallas and Johnson indicated they were not sure about their choice.
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When asked if their mind was made up or whether they could still change their minds, 23.2 percent of Johnson supporters and 14.1 percent of Vallas supporters said they could still change their minds, according to the poll, which was conducted from March 6 to March 9 by Victory Research, a Chicago-based polling firm that does not have a client in the mayor’s race.
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The pollster suggested the “stage is set for a close finish.”
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When broken down by respondents self-described politics, Johnson had the support of 58.4 percent of progressives compared to 21.9 percent for his opponent, while Vallas was supported by 63.7 percent of moderates to Johnson’s 25.7 percent. Conservatives supported Vallas by about a 78-1 margin.
In terms of age, Johnson leads Vallas by more than 10 points with voters under 30, and Vallas has lead of more than 15 points among those older than 60, with the margins between them among voters in their 30s, 40s and 50s all within the margin of error.
“Both candidates made progress in shoring up their respective bases of support, both geographically and racially,” according to a statement accompanying the release of the poll.
Johnson leads among African American voters by a margin of about 63 to 29, Vallas leads among white voters by 61-24, they were running even among Latino respondents, while Vallas had a 30-point lead among other ethnic groups or those who refused to self-identify, according to the poll.
Vallas leads on the Northwest Side and Southwest Side, Johnson leads on the South Side and the West Side. Among voters in lakefront wards, 44.4 percent support Vallas, 41 percent support Johnson and 14.5 percent are undecided.
“The poll shows that either campaign’s winning margin could come from Lakefront and Hispanic voters,” according to the pollster. Neither Vallas nor Johnson has established a majority with either group.
According to the poll, Johnson is beating Vallas among voters who picked all of the defeated candidates in the Feb. 28 primary except for Willie Wilson, who endorsed Vallas. Among Wilson voters, Vallas is beating Johnson by 1.2 percent — well within the poll’s 3.45 percent margin of error.
The poll’s sample of 806 likely runoff voters was reached using a mix of about two thirds cell phones and one third land lines. ABC News data journalism website FiveThirtyEight, which assigns letter grades to pollsters, grades Victory Research with a “B/C” and notes it has correctly called 92 percent of the races it analyzed.
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